2022
08/03
相关创新主体

创新背景

政策制定最先需要考虑的是客观实际情况,同时也需要参考人们的意见和偏好。想要控制气候变化和温室气体排放,相关经济政策的实行至关重要。

 

创新过程

波茨坦气候影响研究所的研究表明,遵守气候友好型政策实际上改变了人们对环境和生活的看法,研究成果《具有内生偏好的气候变化经济学》2022年发表在《资源与能源经济学上》。

气候减缓政策的设计依赖于经济模型。经济学的模型假设通常认为个体生来就具有一套固定的价值观和偏好,这些价值观和偏好不会轻易变化,基本一生都维持一种思维方式。这样的假设对现实有所简化,使计算更容易。但偏好代表一个人的价值观和习惯,体现在经济上就是喜欢与讨厌导致的消费选择。在不同的人生阶段人的消费选择和偏好发生变化几乎是必然的,比教科书和模型假设的更具可塑性,这也导致了经济的发展变化。如果个体始终保持偏好不变,那么经济模式的改变只会更加困难。在制定碳税或建设低碳基础设施等政策时需要考虑人们的思维方式和偏好变化。

偏好的变化实际上是有迹可循的,比如吸烟影响健康的观念在教育宣传过程中普及时对香烟价格进行干预并提高禁令管控程度,戒烟的人就会越来越多,但经济学家很少将这个现象理解为偏好变化。研究的主要领导者,波茨坦气候影响研究所和牛津大学的研究员Linus Mattauch表示,气候政策相关的经济模型建设需要改进,增加答辩偏好变化的部分。
碳定价对于实现气候目标至关重要,但如果碳定价改变了人们的偏好,会对相关的经济模式产生影响。比如,如果消费者认为碳价格表明政策对他们来说是合理并且可以接受的,那么碳定价的政策就会顺利施行,并且发展低碳偏好,通过给定的税率实现环境保护。

在城市规划设计中,如果政府投入资金并使城市的基础设施更适合骑自行车,居民将从开车转向使用公共交通工具或骑自行车,并将这种行动持续下去,为环境和自身健康带来溢出。经济模型和政策考虑到这些好处可以降低相应的投资门槛。
认识到气候政策工具修改偏好形成过程可以为每个人制定更好的气候政策,并有助于推进政府间气候变化专门委员会最近提出的使用需求方措施遏制碳排放的建议。当策略更改首选项时,如果不考虑人们的偏好变化,实行效率会很低下。并且,政策引发的对积极旅行和植物性饮食偏好的变化可能会增加向零排放过渡的净效益。

 

创新关键点

将人们的偏好变化以及后续的消费选择变化纳入气候经济政策的制定因素中。

 

创新价值

有助于制定更加合理可行的气候经济政策,在保证能顺利达到目标的同时符合人们的需求和预期,有效推进经济发展和环境保护。

 

Climate economic policy formulation should take into account changes in people's preferences

Research from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research shows that adherence to climate-friendly policies actually changes the way people think about the environment and life, and the findings of the study, The Economics of Climate Change with Endogenous Preferences, were published in Resource and Energy Economics in 2022.

The design of climate mitigation policies relies on economic models. The model assumptions of economics usually assume that individuals are born with a fixed set of values and preferences that do not change easily and that they maintain a way of thinking for basically their entire lives. Such assumptions simplify reality and make calculations easier. But preferences represent a person's values and habits, which are embodied in the economics of consumption choices caused by likes and dislikes. Changes in people's consumption choices and preferences at different stages of life are almost inevitable and more malleable than textbooks and models assume, which has also led to changes in economic development. If individuals always maintain the same preferences, then changing the economic model will only become more difficult. Policies such as carbon taxes or the construction of low-carbon infrastructure need to be taken into account when developing policies such as people's thinking and preferences.

There are actually traces of changes in preferences, such as the idea that smoking affects health intervenes in cigarette prices and increases the degree of ban control when the education process is popularized, and more and more people quit smoking, but economists rarely understand this phenomenon as a change in preference. Linus Mattauch, a research leader at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the University of Oxford, said the construction of economic models related to climate policy needs to be improved to increase the portion of the change in defense preferences.

Carbon pricing is critical to meeting climate goals, but if carbon pricing changes people's preferences, it will have an impact on the relevant economic model. For example, if consumers believe that the carbon price indicates that the policy is reasonable and acceptable to them, then the carbon pricing policy will be implemented smoothly, and low-carbon preferences will be developed to protect the environment through the given tax rate.

In urban planning and design, if the government invests money and makes the city's infrastructure more suitable for cycling, residents will shift from driving to using public transport or cycling, and continue this action, bringing spillovers to the environment and their own health. Economic models and policies that take these benefits into account can lower the corresponding investment threshold.

Recognize that the preference-building process for climate policy tools can lead to better climate policy for everyone and help advance the recent recommendations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to curb carbon emissions using demand-side measures. When policies change preferences, they are inefficient if they don't take into account people's preference changes. Moreover, policy-induced changes to active travel and plant-based dietary preferences are likely to increase the net benefits of the transition to zero emissions.

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